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12
Inflation
23
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1
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17
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1
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6
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Economy
Economy
All
Trade War
Fed Rates
Inflation
macro
GDP
Global Rates
Taxes
Treasuries
TSA
Housing
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
22%
chance
Yes
No
$13.3M Vol.
Largest Company end of December 2026?
NVIDIA
75%
Yes
75%
No
25%
Apple
17%
Yes
17%
No
83%
Alphabet
6%
Yes
6%
No
94%
Microsoft
1%
Yes
1%
No
99%
SpaceX
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
Saudi Aramco
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
$7.5M Vol.
IPOs before 2027?
Anthropic
76%
Yes
76%
No
24%
Discord
11%
Yes
11%
No
89%
Celonis
9%
Yes
9%
No
91%
Rippling
5%
Yes
5%
No
95%
Perplexity
5%
Yes
5%
No
95%
Stripe
4%
Yes
4%
No
96%
$7.4M Vol.
Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
SpaceX
56%
Yes
56%
No
44%
Anthropic
44%
Yes
44%
No
56%
xAI
26%
Yes
26%
No
74%
OpenAI
1%
Yes
1%
No
99%
Kraken
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
Revolut
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
$6.1M Vol.
Fed rate hike by...?
September Meeting
100%
Yes
100%
No
0%
October Meeting
100%
Yes
100%
No
0%
$3.9M Vol.
AI bubble burst by...?
June 30, 2027
23%
Yes
23%
No
77%
December 31, 2026
10%
Yes
10%
No
90%
$3.0M Vol.
US recession by end of 2026?
9%
chance
Yes
No
$2.2M Vol.
Richest person on December 31, 2026?
Elon Musk
97%
Yes
97%
No
3%
Warren Buffett
1%
Yes
1%
No
99%
Jeff Bezos
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
Mark Zuckerberg
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
Bernard Arnault
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
Steve Ballmer
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
$1.9M Vol.
What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?
↑ 4.25%
87%
Yes
87%
No
13%
↑ 4.5%
25%
Yes
25%
No
75%
↑ 4.75%
10%
Yes
10%
No
90%
↓ 1.0%
5%
Yes
5%
No
95%
↓ 3.25%
4%
Yes
4%
No
96%
↓ 2.0%
3%
Yes
3%
No
97%
$1.9M Vol.
How high will inflation get in 2026?
Above 4.5%
18%
Yes
18%
No
82%
Above 5%
9%
Yes
9%
No
91%
Above 6%
4%
Yes
4%
No
96%
Above 8%
3%
Yes
3%
No
97%
Above 10%
3%
Yes
3%
No
97%
$1.5M Vol.
Which CEOs will be out before 2027?
Andy Jassy - Amazon
6%
Yes
6%
No
94%
Brian Armstrong - Coinbase
6%
Yes
6%
No
94%
Sundar Pichai - Google
6%
Yes
6%
No
94%
Dan Clancy - Twitch
4%
Yes
4%
No
96%
Sam Altman - OpenAI
3%
Yes
3%
No
97%
$716k Vol.
How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
5.3%
72%
Yes
72%
No
28%
5.4%
47%
Yes
47%
No
53%
$669k Vol.
How much will SpaceX raise in its IPO?
70-80B
93%
Yes
93%
No
7%
80-90B
3%
Yes
3%
No
97%
60-70B
2%
Yes
2%
No
98%
90-100B
1%
Yes
1%
No
99%
110-120B
1%
Yes
1%
No
99%
50-60B
1%
Yes
1%
No
99%
$328k Vol.
How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
Below 4.7%
24%
Yes
24%
No
76%
Below 4.6%
17%
Yes
17%
No
83%
Below 4.5%
16%
Yes
16%
No
84%
Below 4.4%
11%
Yes
11%
No
89%
Below 4.3%
7%
Yes
7%
No
93%
Below 4.1%
4%
Yes
4%
No
96%
$326k Vol.
Which companies announce bankruptcy before 2027?
Xerox
12%
Yes
12%
No
88%
Workhorse
11%
Yes
11%
No
89%
SoundHound AI
10%
Yes
10%
No
90%
Beyond Meat
10%
Yes
10%
No
90%
C3.ai
7%
Yes
7%
No
93%
JetBlue Airways
7%
Yes
7%
No
93%
$243k Vol.
Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?
3%
chance
Yes
No
$239k Vol.
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach __ barrels per day in 2026?
1.2m
55%
Yes
55%
No
45%
1.5m
30%
Yes
30%
No
70%
1.3m
21%
Yes
21%
No
79%
1.4m
6%
Yes
6%
No
94%
2m
3%
Yes
3%
No
97%
1.7m
3%
Yes
3%
No
97%
$186k Vol.
Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?
Google
27%
Yes
27%
No
73%
OpenAI
19%
Yes
19%
No
81%
xAI
13%
Yes
13%
No
87%
Meta
11%
Yes
11%
No
89%
Z.ai
9%
Yes
9%
No
91%
Alibaba
7%
Yes
7%
No
93%
$166k Vol.
Bank of England decision in November?
25 bps increase
70%
Yes
70%
No
30%
No change
31%
Yes
31%
No
69%
50+ bps increase
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
25 bps decrease
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
50+ bps decrease
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
$143k Vol.
Brazil Annual Inflation 2026
5.00-5.49%
48%
Yes
48%
No
52%
5.50-5.99%
26%
Yes
26%
No
74%
4.50-4.99%
20%
Yes
20%
No
80%
6.00-6.49%
6%
Yes
6%
No
94%
4.00-4.49%
2%
Yes
2%
No
98%
7.00%+
1%
Yes
1%
No
99%
$136k Vol.
SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027?
30%
chance
Yes
No
$123k Vol.
U.K. Annual Inflation 2026
3.5–3.9%
44%
Yes
44%
No
56%
4.0-4.4%
16%
Yes
16%
No
84%
3.0–3.4%
14%
Yes
14%
No
86%
2.5–2.9%
10%
Yes
10%
No
90%
4.5%+
10%
Yes
10%
No
90%
1.5–1.9%
4%
Yes
4%
No
96%
$121k Vol.
NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027?
10%
chance
Yes
No
$118k Vol.
Eurozone Annual Inflation 2026
3.1%+
91%
Yes
91%
No
9%
2.8-3.0%
4%
Yes
4%
No
96%
1.0–1.2%
3%
Yes
3%
No
97%
2.5–2.7%
2%
Yes
2%
No
98%
1.6–1.8%
2%
Yes
2%
No
98%
2.2–2.4%
1%
Yes
1%
No
99%
$117k Vol.
Will MicroStrategy be margin called in 2026?
5%
chance
Yes
No
$110k Vol.
What will the median home value in Chicago Metro be on September 30?
$335K - $340K
73%
Yes
73%
No
27%
$340K - $345K
20%
Yes
20%
No
80%
$330K - $335K
9%
Yes
9%
No
91%
$345K+
2%
Yes
2%
No
98%
$320K - $325K
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
$325K - $330K
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
$106k Vol.
Bank of Canada Decision in October?
No Change
53%
Yes
53%
No
47%
25 bps increase
47%
Yes
47%
No
53%
50+ bps increase
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
25 bps decrease
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
50+ bps decrease
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
$106k Vol.
China Annual Inflation 2026
0.6 – 1.0%
33%
Yes
33%
No
67%
1.1 – 1.5%
24%
Yes
24%
No
76%
0.1 – 0.5%
14%
Yes
14%
No
86%
-0.4 – 0.0%
11%
Yes
11%
No
89%
1.6 – 2.0%
6%
Yes
6%
No
94%
<-1.0%
5%
Yes
5%
No
95%
$100k Vol.
What will the median home value in the Austin Metro area be on September 30?
<$446K
98%
Yes
98%
No
2%
$470K - $478K
2%
Yes
2%
No
98%
$446K - $454K
1%
Yes
1%
No
99%
$462K - $470K
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
$478K - $486K
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
$486K+
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
$99k Vol.
What will the median home value in the US be on September 30?
<$419K
66%
Yes
66%
No
34%
$419K - $426K
32%
Yes
32%
No
68%
$433K - $440K
1%
Yes
1%
No
99%
$426K - $433K
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
$440K - $447K
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
$447K - $454K
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
$98k Vol.
US economic state at the end of 2026?
Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)
68%
Yes
68%
No
32%
Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)
33%
Yes
33%
No
67%
Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)
1%
Yes
1%
No
99%
Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
$96k Vol.
UK Annual GDP Growth 2026
1-2%
89%
Yes
89%
No
11%
0-1%
6%
Yes
6%
No
94%
2-3%
2%
Yes
2%
No
98%
<0
2%
Yes
2%
No
98%
3-4%
1%
Yes
1%
No
99%
4-5%
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
$93k Vol.
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