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6
Military Strikes
18
Oil
Iran Regime
Ceasefire
Hormuz
9
Regional Spillover
US-Iran
11
Iran Strikes Israel
Reza Pahlavi
7
Lebanon
3
Nuclear
Israel x Iran
Kurds
Iran
Iran
All
Military Strikes
Oil
Iran Regime
Ceasefire
Hormuz
Regional Spillover
US-Iran
Iran Strikes Israel
Reza Pahlavi
Lebanon
Nuclear
Israel x Iran
Kurds
US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
59%
chance
Yes
No
$277.7M Vol.
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
December 31
6%
Yes
6%
No
94%
September 30
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
$74.8M Vol.
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
16%
chance
Yes
No
$69.8M Vol.
Iran leader end of 2026?
Mojtaba Khamenei
88%
Yes
88%
No
12%
No Head of State
5%
Yes
5%
No
95%
Reza Pahlavi
3%
Yes
3%
No
97%
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad
1%
Yes
1%
No
99%
Hassan Rouhani
1%
Yes
1%
No
99%
Alireza Arafi
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
$39.6M Vol.
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
March 31
75%
Yes
75%
No
25%
December 31
59%
Yes
59%
No
41%
November 30
44%
Yes
44%
No
56%
October 31
28%
Yes
28%
No
72%
October 15
17%
Yes
17%
No
83%
September 30
4%
Yes
4%
No
96%
$32.7M Vol.
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
September 30
98%
Yes
98%
No
2%
October 31
85%
Yes
85%
No
15%
November 30
72%
Yes
72%
No
28%
December 31
65%
Yes
65%
No
35%
$31.7M Vol.
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?
December 31
7%
Yes
7%
No
93%
September 30
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
$29.5M Vol.
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
7%
chance
Yes
No
$26.4M Vol.
Iran leadership change by...?
June 30, 2027
23%
Yes
23%
No
77%
December 31
11%
Yes
11%
No
89%
November 30
6%
Yes
6%
No
94%
October 31
3%
Yes
3%
No
97%
September 30
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
$26.3M Vol.
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?
4%
chance
Yes
No
$22.1M Vol.
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?
December 31
12%
Yes
12%
No
88%
November 30
9%
Yes
9%
No
91%
October 31
4%
Yes
4%
No
96%
September 30
1%
Yes
1%
No
99%
$18.6M Vol.
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?
December 31
8%
Yes
8%
No
92%
October 31
4%
Yes
4%
No
96%
$18.0M Vol.
Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?
March 31, 2027
100%
Yes
100%
No
0%
December 31, 2026
100%
Yes
100%
No
0%
October 31, 2026
100%
Yes
100%
No
0%
September 30, 2026
100%
Yes
100%
No
0%
$12.5M Vol.
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
0%
chance
Yes
No
$12.2M Vol.
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?
3%
chance
Yes
No
$11.8M Vol.
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
0%
chance
Yes
No
$11.4M Vol.
Iran full airspace closure by...?
December 31
28%
Yes
28%
No
72%
October 31
11%
Yes
11%
No
89%
September 30
2%
Yes
2%
No
98%
$9.8M Vol.
Iran closes its airspace by...?
100%
chance
Yes
No
$8.0M Vol.
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?
3%
chance
Yes
No
$7.8M Vol.
Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?
December 31
19%
Yes
19%
No
81%
October 31
7%
Yes
7%
No
93%
September 30
1%
Yes
1%
No
99%
$7.2M Vol.
Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?
0%
chance
Yes
No
$6.9M Vol.
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
September 30
79%
Yes
79%
No
21%
October 31
70%
Yes
70%
No
30%
$4.7M Vol.
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
September 30
93%
Yes
93%
No
7%
October 31
56%
Yes
56%
No
44%
November 30
38%
Yes
38%
No
62%
December 31
34%
Yes
34%
No
66%
$4.2M Vol.
Iran charges Hormuz fees by...?
December 31
23%
Yes
23%
No
77%
October 31
10%
Yes
10%
No
90%
September 30
2%
Yes
2%
No
98%
$3.2M Vol.
Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?
October 31
23%
Yes
23%
No
77%
September 30
3%
Yes
3%
No
97%
$2.7M Vol.
Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
0%
chance
Yes
No
$2.7M Vol.
Iran coup attempt by...?
10%
chance
Yes
No
$2.1M Vol.
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?
67%
chance
Yes
No
$2.0M Vol.
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
11%
chance
Yes
No
$1.8M Vol.
Israel ground operation in Iran confirmed by...?
11%
chance
Yes
No
$1.8M Vol.
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by...?
October 31
67%
Yes
67%
No
33%
October 15
42%
Yes
42%
No
58%
September 30
14%
Yes
14%
No
86%
$1.6M Vol.
US announces blockade on Iran by...?
46%
chance
Yes
No
$1.4M Vol.
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