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Daily
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forex
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Fed Rates
Prediction Markets
Treasuries
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
0 (0 bps)
97%
Yes
97%
No
3%
1 (25 bps)
2%
Yes
2%
No
98%
2 (50 bps)
1%
Yes
1%
No
99%
3 (75 bps)
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
4 (100 bps)
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
5 (125 bps)
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
$53.5M Vol.
Fed rate hike in 2026?
95%
chance
Yes
No
$9.8M Vol.
What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?
4.25%
55%
Yes
55%
No
45%
≥ 4.5%
33%
Yes
33%
No
67%
4.0%
8%
Yes
8%
No
92%
3.75%
3%
Yes
3%
No
97%
3.5%
2%
Yes
2%
No
98%
2.75%
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
$6.9M Vol.
Fed rate cut by...?
July 2027 Meeting
44%
Yes
44%
No
56%
June 2027 Meeting
37%
Yes
37%
No
63%
April 2027 Meeting
29%
Yes
29%
No
71%
March 2027 Meeting
23%
Yes
23%
No
77%
January 2027 Meeting
8%
Yes
8%
No
92%
$3.7M Vol.
Fed Decision in December?
25 bps increase
70%
Yes
70%
No
30%
No change
28%
Yes
28%
No
72%
50+ bps increase
2%
Yes
2%
No
98%
25 bps decrease
1%
Yes
1%
No
99%
50+ bps decrease
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
$1.3M Vol.
Fed decisions (Jul–Oct)
Other
89%
Yes
89%
No
11%
Pause–Pause–Pause
7%
Yes
7%
No
93%
Pause–Pause–Cut
2%
Yes
2%
No
98%
Pause–Cut–Pause
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
Pause–Cut–Cut
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
$792k Vol.
How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
5.2%
89%
Yes
89%
No
11%
5.5%
25%
Yes
25%
No
75%
5.7%
10%
Yes
10%
No
90%
6.0%
7%
Yes
7%
No
93%
$669k Vol.
Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…?
11%
chance
Yes
No
$448k Vol.
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?
91%
chance
Yes
No
$149k Vol.
Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)
Hike–Hike–Hike
38%
Yes
38%
No
62%
Hike–Hike–Pause
27%
Yes
27%
No
73%
Hike–Pause–Hike
27%
Yes
27%
No
73%
Hike–Pause–Pause
7%
Yes
7%
No
93%
Other
2%
Yes
2%
No
98%
$120k Vol.
Fed Decision in January?
No change
56%
Yes
56%
No
44%
25 bps increase
32%
Yes
32%
No
68%
25 bps decrease
6%
Yes
6%
No
94%
50+ bps decrease
3%
Yes
3%
No
97%
50+ bps increase
3%
Yes
3%
No
97%
$111k Vol.
Lisa Cook officially out as Fed Governor by...?
December 31
4%
Yes
4%
No
96%
November 30
2%
Yes
2%
No
98%
October 31
1%
Yes
1%
No
99%
September 30
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
$25k Vol.
How many dissent at the December Fed meeting?
0
51%
Yes
51%
No
49%
1
30%
Yes
30%
No
70%
2
13%
Yes
13%
No
87%
3
9%
Yes
9%
No
91%
4+
3%
Yes
3%
No
97%
$20k Vol.
How many dissent at the January Fed meeting?
0
36%
Yes
36%
No
64%
3
27%
Yes
27%
No
73%
1
21%
Yes
21%
No
79%
2
20%
Yes
20%
No
80%
4+
1%
Yes
1%
No
99%
$16k Vol.
How many dissent at the October Fed meeting?
0
43%
Yes
43%
No
57%
1
21%
Yes
21%
No
79%
4+
12%
Yes
12%
No
88%
2
11%
Yes
11%
No
89%
3
11%
Yes
11%
No
89%
$7k Vol.
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