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AI
Elon Musk
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Research
FDA
Big Tech
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OpenAI IPO by...?
June 30, 2027
57%
Yes
57%
No
43%
March 31, 2027
26%
Yes
26%
No
74%
December 31, 2026
4%
Yes
4%
No
96%
September 30, 2026
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
$3.0M Vol.
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?
3%
chance
Yes
No
$991k Vol.
Will OpenAI launch a consumer hardware product by...?
December 31, 2026
33%
Yes
33%
No
67%
October 31, 2026
10%
Yes
10%
No
90%
$443k Vol.
What kind of product will OpenAI announce in 2026?
Clip-on device for clothing
17%
Yes
17%
No
83%
Glasses
14%
Yes
14%
No
86%
Earbuds/Headphones
11%
Yes
11%
No
89%
Necklace
10%
Yes
10%
No
90%
Watch
9%
Yes
9%
No
91%
Ring
8%
Yes
8%
No
92%
$438k Vol.
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
96%
Anthropic
Anthropic
OpenAI
$397k Vol.
OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by...?
December 31, 2027
70%
Yes
70%
No
30%
December 31, 2026
32%
Yes
32%
No
68%
September 30, 2026
2%
Yes
2%
No
98%
$371k Vol.
OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027?
3%
chance
Yes
No
$315k Vol.
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
18%
chance
Yes
No
$281k Vol.
Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by September 30?
↑$975B
79%
Yes
79%
No
21%
↑$1.025T
10%
Yes
10%
No
90%
↓$875B
5%
Yes
5%
No
95%
↑$1.125T
3%
Yes
3%
No
97%
↑$1.525T
2%
Yes
2%
No
98%
↓$825B
2%
Yes
2%
No
98%
$83k Vol.
OpenAI announces bankruptcy by...?
December 31, 2029
20%
Yes
20%
No
80%
December 31, 2028
17%
Yes
17%
No
83%
December 31, 2027
8%
Yes
8%
No
92%
$73k Vol.
Lead Bank in OpenAI's IPO?
Goldman Sachs
78%
Yes
78%
No
22%
Morgan Stanley
20%
Yes
20%
No
80%
Deutsche Bank
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
JPMorgan
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
Barclays
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
UBS
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
$54k Vol.
OpenAI’s valuation end of September 2026?
$900B-$1.00T
93%
Yes
93%
No
7%
$1.00-$1.10T
3%
Yes
3%
No
97%
$1.10-$1.20T
2%
Yes
2%
No
98%
$800-$900B
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
$1.20-$1.30T
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
$1.30T+
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
$38k Vol.
Will Ari Weinstein leave OpenAI by December 31, 2026?
11%
chance
Yes
No
$13k Vol.
SpaceX or OpenAI higher IPO Market Cap?
56%
SpaceX
SpaceX
OpenAI
$12k Vol.
3rd largest private company end of September?
ByteDance
97%
Yes
97%
No
3%
Stripe
1%
Yes
1%
No
99%
OpenAI
1%
Yes
1%
No
99%
Anduril
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
Canva
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
Perplexity
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
$12k Vol.
Largest private company end of September?
Anthropic
100%
Yes
100%
No
0%
Revolut
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
Neuralink
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
ByteDance
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
Anduril
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
Perplexity
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
$10k Vol.
Will OpenAI launch a token before 2027?
3%
chance
Yes
No
$9k Vol.
OpenAI’s valuation end of October 2026?
$1.00-$1.10T
36%
Yes
36%
No
64%
$900B-$1.00T
28%
Yes
28%
No
72%
$800-$900B
21%
Yes
21%
No
79%
$1.30T+
18%
Yes
18%
No
82%
$1.10-$1.20T
12%
Yes
12%
No
88%
$600-$700B
6%
Yes
6%
No
94%
$8k Vol.
2nd largest private company end of September?
OpenAI
94%
Yes
94%
No
6%
Anthropic
1%
Yes
1%
No
99%
ByteDance
1%
Yes
1%
No
99%
Anduril
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
Neuralink
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
Stripe
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
$7k Vol.
OpenAI acquired before 2027?
3%
chance
Yes
No
$5k Vol.
OpenAI vs. Anthropic: First to another Millennium Prize Solution?
79%
OpenAI
OpenAI
Anthropic
$3k Vol.
OpenAI criminally charged in the US in 2026?
42%
chance
Yes
No
$850 Vol.
Stripe vs Databricks - greater valuation growth September 2026
70%
Stripe
Stripe
Databricks
$824 Vol.
Will OpenAI retract its Navier-Stokes solution by December 31, 2026?
7%
chance
Yes
No
$559 Vol.
Anthropic vs OpenAI - greater valuation growth September 2026
58%
Anthropic
Anthropic
OpenAI
$342 Vol.
Anthropic or OpenAI: higher IPO closing market cap?
69%
Anthropic
Anthropic
OpenAI
$227 Vol.
Next GPT Sol (6.1+) released by...?
December 31
60%
Yes
60%
No
40%
November 30
43%
Yes
43%
No
57%
$80 Vol.
#1 AI lab by OpenRouter market share week of September 28?
DeepSeek
71%
Yes
71%
No
29%
AI lab F
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
AI lab G
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
Other
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
Qwen
34%
Yes
34%
No
66%
Google
27%
Yes
27%
No
73%
$79 Vol.
Weekly
OpenAI retracts Navier-Stokes solution in 2026?
7%
chance
Yes
No
$72 Vol.
GPT Sol 6.1+: Output Token Price Debut?
$10+
74%
Yes
74%
No
26%
$20+
54%
Yes
54%
No
46%
$30+
27%
Yes
27%
No
73%
$40+
27%
Yes
27%
No
73%
$63 Vol.
OpenAI resumes training by...?
October 31
75%
Yes
75%
No
25%
October 15
56%
Yes
56%
No
44%
October 10
28%
Yes
28%
No
72%
October 5
17%
Yes
17%
No
83%
September 30
9%
Yes
9%
No
91%
$40 Vol.
#3 AI lab by OpenRouter market share week of September 28?
OpenAI
68%
Yes
68%
No
32%
AI lab F
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
AI lab G
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
Other
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
Tencent
35%
Yes
35%
No
65%
xAI
35%
Yes
35%
No
65%
$20 Vol.
Weekly
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