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SpaceX IPO by ___ ?
December 31
100%
Yes
100%
No
0%
September 30
100%
Yes
100%
No
0%
$4.0M Vol.
SpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap
2.0T-2.5T
49%
Yes
49%
No
51%
1.5T-2.0T
30%
Yes
30%
No
70%
2.5T-3.0T
12%
Yes
12%
No
88%
1.0T-1.5T
4%
Yes
4%
No
96%
3.0T-3.5T
4%
Yes
4%
No
96%
3.5T+
2%
Yes
2%
No
98%
$2.7M Vol.
Lead Bank in SpaceX’s IPO?
Goldman Sachs
53%
Yes
53%
No
47%
Morgan Stanley
39%
Yes
39%
No
61%
Bank of America
11%
Yes
11%
No
89%
JPMorgan
1%
Yes
1%
No
99%
UBS
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
Citigroup
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
$1.7M Vol.
SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12
Super Heavy booster explodes?
89%
Yes
89%
No
11%
Successful splash down?
63%
Yes
63%
No
37%
Chopsticks catch Super Heavy booster?
3%
Yes
3%
No
97%
$1.7M Vol.
SpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap (Lower Strikes)
2.0T+
64%
Yes
64%
No
36%
1.8T–2.0T
21%
Yes
21%
No
79%
1.6T–1.8T
11%
Yes
11%
No
89%
1.4T–1.6T
4%
Yes
4%
No
96%
1.2T–1.4T
2%
Yes
2%
No
98%
1.0T–1.2T
1%
Yes
1%
No
99%
$1.4M Vol.
Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by...?
December 31, 2027
69%
Yes
69%
No
31%
June 30, 2027
47%
Yes
47%
No
53%
December 31, 2026
4%
Yes
4%
No
96%
$998k Vol.
SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14
Super Heavy booster explodes?
100%
Yes
100%
No
0%
Successful splash down?
69%
Yes
69%
No
31%
Chopsticks catch Starship?
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
Chopsticks catch Super Heavy booster?
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
$785k Vol.
How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?
5-6
59%
Yes
59%
No
41%
<5
37%
Yes
37%
No
63%
7-8
3%
Yes
3%
No
97%
9-10
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
>16
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
11-12
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
$518k Vol.
How many SpaceX launches in 2026?
140-159
78%
Yes
78%
No
22%
120-139
7%
Yes
7%
No
93%
160-179
3%
Yes
3%
No
97%
200 or more
2%
Yes
2%
No
98%
180-199
1%
Yes
1%
No
99%
100-119
1%
Yes
1%
No
99%
$335k Vol.
5kt meteor strike in 2026?
22%
chance
Yes
No
$314k Vol.
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?
8%
chance
Yes
No
$207k Vol.
1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?
1%
chance
Yes
No
$117k Vol.
Will SpaceX or OpenAI IPO first?
100%
SpaceX
SpaceX
OpenAI
$90k Vol.
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by...?
December 31
90%
Yes
90%
No
10%
September 30
52%
Yes
52%
No
48%
$72k Vol.
AI data center in space by...?
December 31, 2027
22%
Yes
22%
No
78%
December 31, 2026
2%
Yes
2%
No
98%
$57k Vol.
Elon Musk Net Worth on September 30?
$900B-$1.00T
60%
Yes
60%
No
40%
$1.00-$1.10T
17%
Yes
17%
No
83%
$800-$900B
17%
Yes
17%
No
83%
$1.10T+
5%
Yes
5%
No
95%
$700-$800B
2%
Yes
2%
No
98%
$600-$700B
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
$30k Vol.
SpaceX IPO: Officially added to S&P 500 in 2026?
2%
chance
Yes
No
$28k Vol.
SpaceX IPO: Officially added to Nasdaq-100 in 2026?
99%
chance
Yes
No
$12k Vol.
SpaceX or OpenAI higher IPO Market Cap?
56%
SpaceX
SpaceX
OpenAI
$12k Vol.
100kt meteor strike in 2026?
4%
chance
Yes
No
$9k Vol.
How many SpaceX launches in September 2026?
<12
100%
Yes
100%
No
0%
12
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
15+
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
14
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
13
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
$6k Vol.
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on First Day?
69%
Up
Up
Down
$4k Vol.
Chopsticks catch a Starship upper stage by...?
October 31, 2026
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
September 30, 2026
1%
Yes
1%
No
99%
$3k Vol.
SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2028?
74%
chance
Yes
No
$1k Vol.
SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15?
November 30, 2026
74%
Yes
74%
No
26%
Super Heavy booster explodes?
60%
Yes
60%
No
40%
October 31, 2026
59%
Yes
59%
No
41%
Chopsticks catch Starship?
42%
Yes
42%
No
58%
Chopsticks catch Super Heavy booster?
40%
Yes
40%
No
60%
$773 Vol.
SpaceX IPO: Open Price above IPO Price?
90%
chance
Yes
No
$162 Vol.
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